Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Clay Porter, and I'm just a regular citizen from Georgia writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they offer real value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow these markets to thrive without over-restricting them.
I first got into prediction markets because I wanted better information about elections and other public events. Honestly, I've found the forecasts on these platforms to be way more accurate than what I see from polls or TV pundits. That kind of insight helps me make sense of what's happening, and I think its useful for everyone, not just traders. Its also important to me that regular folks like me can participate in these legal, regulated spaces. If only big institutions get access, all the good information stays with them, and thats not fair. Plus, I dont see this as gambling. Trading on Kalshi takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. Classifying event contracts as gaming feels wrong when they serve real economic purposes like price discovery and hedging.
Im also worried about what happens if the CFTC clamps down too hard. Regulated markets like Kalshi are safe and transparent, with oversight to protect consumers. If rules get too strict, people will just turn to unregulated offshore platforms, and thats a much bigger risk. Id rather see the US lead in financial innovation than push this activity overseas. The CFTC already has strong tools to handle issues like manipulation and insider trading in other markets. I believe those can be adapted here without resorting to broad bans. Targeted, proportionate regulation makes more sense to me.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address a few from Topic Area B on Public Interest, like Question 7 about balancing innovation and consumer protection. I think regulation should focus on safeguarding traders while still allowing new ideas to grow. Also, on Topic Area C, Question 15 about defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I strongly feel event contracts arent gambling. Theyre about real-world outcomes and provide useful data. And regarding Topic Area F, Question 33 on classification, I hope the CFTC avoids overly harsh categories that could stifle these markets.
Ive read about academic studies showing how prediction markets improve information and transparency, and I think thats another reason to support them. They help everyone make better decisions. So, Im asking the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please dont ban or over-restrict them. Lets keep these tools accessible, safe, and innovative right here in the US.
Sincerely,
Clay Porter
