Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Maribel Tufino, and I'm a regular citizen from New York writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets, but I've taken the time to learn about them, and I strongly support their development under fair and balanced regulation. I believe they offer unique value to society, and I want to explain why I think the CFTC should encourage their growth rather than restrict them.
Ive always been fascinated by how data and research can reveal insights about the world. Thats why Im drawn to prediction markets. Theyre not just a way to trade or make a bet; theyre a tool to aggregate information from lots of different people, often producing forecasts that are more accurate than polls or expert opinions. Ive read about academic studies, like those by economists such as Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz, showing how these markets can predict election outcomes or economic trends better than traditional methods. That kind of transparency and accuracy in data isnt just helpful for traders; its valuable for everyone, from policymakers to regular folks like me who want to understand whats coming next.
I also believe that informed trading in these markets isnt a problem; its a strength. When people with real knowledge or insight participate, they help make the prices more accurate, which benefits all of us. I know there are concerns about insider trading, but I think the answer is to enforce existing laws against it, not to ban or overly restrict entire markets. Shutting down prediction markets to stop a few bad actors would be like closing a library because someone might steal a book. It punishes everyone else whos using it for good reasons.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from your ANPR. On Question 29, about whether informed traders aid price discovery, Id say absolutely yes. Their participation sharpens the data we all rely on. And on Question 7, about balancing innovation with consumer protection, I think the CFTC can protect users by focusing on clear rules against manipulation and fraud, without stifling a tool thats so useful for transparency and understanding.
Prediction markets arent gambling to me. Theyre about research, judgment, and sharing knowledge in a way thats open to regular people, not just big institutions. I hope the CFTC will support proportionate regulation that lets these markets grow while addressing real risks with targeted solutions. Dont let fear of misuse stop something that can benefit so many of us.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Maribel Tufino
