Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Burton Ahkiviana, and Im a trader and investor based in Alaska. Im writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im relatively new to prediction markets, but Ive been learning about them and strongly support their development under fair, proportionate regulation. I believe these markets have real value, and Id like to share my thoughts on why the CFTC should encourage their growth rather than impose heavy restrictions.
As someone who trades and invests, I see prediction markets as a unique tool for understanding the world. Theyre not gambling, in my view. Theyre about analyzing information and making informed decisions, much like trading stocks or commodities. Event contracts let people put their knowledge to work, whether its predicting an election outcome or an economic indicator, and that process creates price signals that benefit everyone, not just traders. Im particularly convinced that informed trading improves price discovery. When people with real insight participate, the markets predictions get sharper, and that helps all of us make better decisions, whether were trading or just watching.
Im worried, though, about what happens if the CFTC over-restricts these markets. Banning or limiting them wont stop people from participating; itll just push activity offshore to unregulated platforms where theres less oversight and more risk. Ive seen how fast financial activity can move to other jurisdictions when rules get too tight. The U.S. should be leading the way on financial innovation, not handing that advantage to other countries. Weve got the expertise and the infrastructure to make prediction markets safe and useful, so lets set the standard instead of falling behind.
I also want to address some of the concerns raised in your questions, specifically around public interest and insider trading from Questions 7-14 and 29-32. I get that theres a need to protect consumers and prevent abuse, but the answer isnt shutting down these markets. Existing laws already cover insider trading and manipulation, and the CFTC has the tools to enforce them. Lets focus on applying those tools rather than broad bans that punish everyone for the actions of a few.
Living in Alaska, I know how important it is to have access to new financial tools. Were often far from the centers of finance, and prediction markets could give folks like me a way to engage with big events that affect our lives, from energy policy to weather impacts. I urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets with clear, fair rules that address specific risks without stifling innovation.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Burton Ahkiviana
