Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Andrew Plowman, and I'm just a regular guy from Arkansas who cares about having the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like prediction markets. I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I wanted to share why I think these markets are valuable and why the CFTC should support them with fair, proportionate rules instead of heavy restrictions or bans. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, published in 91 FR 12516.
I rely on prediction markets because they give me information I can't find anywhere else. Honestly, their forecasts are often way more accurate than what I hear from polls or pundits on TV. That helps me make better decisions, whether it's understanding how an election might affect my taxes or how a Federal Reserve decision could impact my mortgage planning. And it's not just me who benefits. These accurate predictions help everyone, from regular folks to businesses trying to plan ahead. I also use these markets to hedge real risks. For example, Ive placed trades to offset uncertainties around economic policies that could hit my household budget. This isn't gambling to me. It takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" feels wrong when they serve real economic purposes like hedging and price discovery.
I'm worried that banning or over-restricting these markets would push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe than a regulated market like Kalshi. The U.S. should be leading the way in financial innovation, not letting other countries take over. We can't afford to fall behind. Plus, I believe the CFTC already has strong tools to stop manipulation and insider trading in other markets. Why not apply those same tools here instead of broad bans? Informed trading actually makes prices more accurate, which helps everyone in the market. Shutting down prediction markets to stop a few bad actors punishes the rest of us who are playing by the rules.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulated prediction markets strike that balance by keeping activity safe and transparent while still allowing new ideas to grow. And on Question 15, about defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I strongly feel event contracts aren't gambling since they help with real-world decisions and risk management.
I urge the CFTC to support prediction markets with targeted, fair regulation that addresses specific risks without broad categorical bans. Let regular people like me keep participating in these legal, useful markets. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Andrew Plowman
