Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Mikey Reyes, and I'm a trader and investor based in Ohio. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing to share my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will support their growth with fair, proportionate rules.
As a trader, I rely on prediction markets for insights that I can't get anywhere else. The forecasts on platforms like Kalshi for elections and other public events have consistently been more accurate than polls or pundits. Ive used these price signals to make better decisions, not just for trading but for understanding the world around me. This isnt just helpful for investors; its information that benefits everyone, from small business owners to regular folks trying to plan their lives. I think democratizing access to this kind of data is a strength. If only big institutions could participate, theyd hoard the insights, and the rest of us would be left in the dark.
I also see real economic value in these markets beyond forecasting. They let individuals and businesses hedge against real risks. For instance, Ive used event contracts to offset uncertainties tied to election outcomes that could impact my investments or tax planning. This isnt gambling; its a practical tool, much like trading futures or options to manage risk. Calling this gaming feels like a misstep when it requires the same research and judgment I use in other markets.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get why those are issues. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle these problems. Laws already ban federal employees and officials from trading on nonpublic information, and your agency has broad authority to crack down on market manipulation in any regulated market. Shutting down or over-restricting prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing the majority of honest traders like me. Itd be like closing the stock market over insider trading cases. Use the tools you have; dont ban the market.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulated markets like Kalshi are the answer. Theyre safer than offshore platforms, and the US should lead in this space. On Question 29, regarding inside information, I believe informed traders often improve price accuracy, and existing laws already handle the misuse of nonpublic data.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont impose blanket bans or overly restrictive rules that could stifle this valuable tool. Lets keep these markets accessible, safe, and innovative for traders like me and for the public good.
Sincerely,
Mikey Reyes
