Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Lorenzo Quintero, and I'm a regular citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the CFTC creating a fair, regulated framework for prediction markets rather than imposing heavy restrictions or outright bans.
I got into prediction markets because they give me insights I can't find anywhere else. Whether it's an election outcome or an economic indicator like a CPI report, the prices on these platforms often cut through the noise of pundits and polls. That information isn't just useful for me as a trader; it's valuable for anyone trying to make sense of the world. I believe these markets help with price discovery and better public decision-making, as academic research has shown time and again. I'm no expert, but I've read studies by economists who argue that prediction markets aggregate information efficiently, and I see that in action when I trade.
As someone who values the freedom to participate in legal markets, I think regulated platforms like Kalshi are the way to go. They offer consumer protections that unregulated offshore sites don't. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, people like me won't just stop trading; we'll get pushed to less safe, foreign platforms with no oversight. That seems like the opposite of protecting consumers. Plus, prediction markets let individuals and businesses hedge real risks, like political changes or economic shifts that hit my wallet. This isn't gambling to me. It's a legitimate tool, and classifying event contracts as "gaming" feels wrong when they serve a clear economic purpose.
I also believe the US should be a leader in financial innovation. We shouldn't cede this space to other countries by over-regulating. On the topic of insider trading or manipulation, I get the concern, but informed trading often improves price discovery for everyone, as long as it's legal. The CFTC already has tools to tackle bad actors, and I think targeted rules are better than broad bans. I'd urge you to consider questions 7 and 29 from the ANPR, on balancing innovation with protection and the role of informed traders. Let's not punish the many for the actions of a few.
In short, I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible and safe for people like me, and don't let heavy-handed rules drive activity offshore. Thanks for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Lorenzo Quintero
