Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Nicole Nelson, and I'm a journalist based in California. Ive spent years covering politics, economics, and tech, often digging into how information shapes public understanding. Im writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets and want to share why they matter to me and why the CFTC should craft proportionate rules rather than overly restrictive ones.
As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets provide unique insights. Theyre not just a niche hobby; theyre a tool for understanding the world. When Im researching a story on an upcoming election or policy change, the aggregated wisdom of these markets often cuts through the noise of polls and pundits. This isnt gambling. Its a serious process of research and judgment, much like analyzing stocks or commodities. Event contracts serve real economic purposes, whether its hedging against policy shifts that could impact my freelance income or simply gaining clarity on public sentiment. I believe the CFTC should recognize this value in response to questions 15-22 on defining gaming versus legitimate markets.
I also value my freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, offer transparency and protections that unregulated offshore sites simply dont. If the CFTC bans or over-restricts prediction markets, it wont stop trading; itll just push people like me to less safe, shadowy platforms abroad. Thats a worse outcome for everyone. I urge you to consider this risk when addressing questions 7-14 on balancing innovation and consumer protection. Regulated markets are the answer, not prohibition.
On a smaller note, Id like to raise a practical concern for event contracts tied to sports or similar outcomes. If a player in a game gets injured after playing part of it, I think their participation should be voided for the contracts purposes. Other apps handle similar situations this way, and it avoids unfair outcomes for traders. This ties into questions 23-28 on procedural aspects of how contracts are evaluated.
Prediction markets have real benefits for society, from better forecasting to democratized access to information. Im not blind to concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but those are already illegal under existing laws. The CFTC has the tools to enforce against bad actors without punishing the rest of us. Please dont let a few risks derail a valuable innovation. I ask that you support proportionate regulation that keeps markets like Kalshi accessible, safe, and legal for everyday participants like me.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Nicole Nelson
