Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Timothy Wright, and Im a business owner from Utah. Im writing to share my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). Ive been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and Ive seen firsthand how these markets provide unique value, both for business and for society at large.
Prediction markets have been a game-changer when it comes to forecasting weather patterns, associated hazards, and even insurance risks. These markets give reliable data that augments traditional sources, which helps plan better and protect life, health, and property. Beyond that, theyre a tool to hedge real financial risks tied to public events, like policy changes or economic shifts that could impact business operations. I also value how they democratize access to information. The forecasts on elections and other events are consistently sharper than polls or pundit opinions, and that benefits everyone.
However, Im concerned about the idea of over-restricting or banning these markets. If the CFTC imposes more restrictions or bans these markets, activity will naturally move to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe and transparent than a regulated market like Kalshi. Id much rather have the option to trade in a system with oversight and clear rules. Banning broad categories of event contracts or labeling them as gaming misses the point. These contracts arent gambling; they serve legitimate economic purposes like hedging, event prediction, and price discovery. Trading on them requires research and judgment, just like any other investment.
I also want to address some of the specific questions in your ANPR. On Question 7 under Public Interest, I believe prediction markets drive innovation and should be supported as part of the US leading in financial technology. We shouldnt cede this space to other countries. On Question 15 about Listed Activities, I urge you not to classify event contracts as gaming; theyre a distinct tool with real utility. And on Question 29 regarding inside information, I think informed trading actually improves price discovery and helps everyone by making market signals clearer.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has tools to tackle those issues. Targeted, proportionate regulation makes more sense than sweeping bans that punish law-abiding participants. Academic research backs this up, showing how prediction markets aggregate information efficiently and transparently.
I respectfully ask that the CFTC support well-regulated prediction markets with rules that address specific risks without inhibiting innovation or access. Lets keep the US at the forefront of financial markets and ensure regular people like me can continue using these tools responsibly.
Sincerely,
Timothy Wright
