Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Mike Dellolio, and I'm just a regular guy from New York writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm not an expert or a big-time trader, but Ive recently learned about prediction markets, and I strongly support having them regulated in a fair way that lets them keep operating. I think theyre a valuable tool for people like me who want better information about the world.
Im not someone whos been trading on these platforms for years. Honestly, Im pretty new to the whole concept. But what got me interested is how prediction markets seem to cut through the noise. Ive watched election cycles where polls and pundits get it wrong over and over, and its frustrating. You cant trust half of what you hear on TV or read online. But from what Ive seen, prediction markets often get closer to the truth because theyre based on real people putting their money where their mouth is. Thats not gambling, its a way to figure out whats actually likely to happen. I think that kind of forecasting is useful for everyone, not just traders. Whether its an election, a policy change, or some other big public event, having a clearer picture helps me make sense of things as a citizen.
I know there are concerns about stuff like insider trading or manipulation, and I get that. Those are real issues. But I dont think the answer is to shut down prediction markets or put so many restrictions on them that regular folks like me cant participate. The laws against insider trading are already in place, right? And the CFTC has the power to go after people who try to mess with the markets. Use those tools. Dont punish everyone else by banning something thats actually helpful. Itd be like closing down a whole highway because a few people speed.
I also want to touch on a couple of the questions you raised in the ANPR. For Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think prediction markets are an innovation worth protecting. They give us information we cant get anywhere else. And for Question 15, on defining what kinds of events should be allowed, I believe markets tied to public events like elections should be fine since theyre not just games, theyre about real-world outcomes that affect us all.
Im asking you to support proportionate regulation for prediction markets. Dont over-restrict them or ban them outright. Let people like me have access to this kind of information, and keep the focus on stopping the bad actors without hurting the rest of us. Thanks for taking the time to read this.
Sincerely,
Mike Dellolio
