Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Zayra Laguna, and I'm a regular citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been following this issue because I use prediction markets to manage risk in my personal finances, and I believe they offer real value to people like me and to society as a whole. I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation of these markets rather than imposing bans or overly tight restrictions.
I rely on prediction markets to hedge against uncertainties that affect my life, like election outcomes that could change tax policies or economic decisions that impact my cost of living. The information I get from these platforms is unlike anything else out there. Honestly, I've found their forecasts to be way more accurate than polls or TV pundits when it comes to elections and other public events. That kind of clarity helps me make better decisions, and I think it could help policymakers and the public too if it's more widely available. It's not just about me trading; the prices on these markets give a clear signal of what people really think, and that's useful for everyone.
I'm also worried about what happens if we don't regulate these markets sensibly. Platforms like Kalshi, which are registered with the CFTC, feel safe to me because there's oversight. If the rules get too harsh or if certain contracts are banned outright, people won't stop trading. They'll just go to unregulated offshore sites where there's no protection at all. I've seen how fast financial activity moves to less safe places when rules are too strict, and I don't want that to happen here. The US has a chance to lead in financial innovation with prediction markets, setting a standard for the world. If we push this activity overseas, we lose that opportunity.
On the topic of informed trading, I believe it actually helps. When people with real knowledge trade, the prices get more accurate, and that benefits everyone who looks at the market for information. I know there are concerns about insider trading, but those laws are already in place. The CFTC has tools to tackle manipulation, and I think focusing on enforcement makes more sense than broad restrictions. Specifically, regarding Questions 7 and 29 from your notice, I urge you to consider how prediction markets can serve the public interest through better price discovery and how informed trading can improve forecasts without needing heavy-handed bans.
I appreciate that the CFTC is taking a careful look at this, and I understand there are risks to manage. But please don't let those risks lead to shutting down something valuable. I'm asking you to craft rules that protect consumers while allowing prediction markets to grow under fair oversight. Let's keep the US at the forefront of innovation and keep these markets safe and accessible for people like me.
Sincerely,
Zayra Laguna
