Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ajy Kumar, and I'm a trader and investor based in California. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in the Federal Register (91 FR 12516). I'm relatively new to prediction markets, but I've come to see their value and strongly support their development under fair, proportionate regulation by the CFTC.
As someone who spends a lot of time analyzing markets and making investment decisions, I know how hard it can be to find reliable information. That's why I think prediction markets are so important. They bring together insights from a wide range of people, creating price signals that often cut through the noise of pundits and polls. I've seen how these markets can predict election outcomes or economic trends with surprising accuracy, and I believe that kind of information isn't just useful for traders like me, it helps everyone. Policymakers, businesses, and even regular citizens can make better decisions when they have access to these aggregated forecasts.
What excites me most is how informed trading in these markets improves price discovery. When people with real knowledge or strong research skills participate, the prices reflect a clearer picture of what's likely to happen. That benefits all market participants, not just the ones making trades. It levels the playing field by making valuable insights public. I worry that overly strict rules could limit who can trade, keeping the best information locked away with big players. Letting everyday people like me participate makes the system fairer and the predictions stronger.
I also want to address a concern I've heard about insider trading or manipulation. I get why this is a worry, but I don't think the answer is to ban or heavily restrict prediction markets. The CFTC already has rules and tools to tackle bad actors, just like in other markets I trade in. Punishing everyone by shutting down these platforms doesn't make sense when the focus should be on enforcing existing laws. Specifically, in response to Questions 29 and 31 from your ANPR, I believe informed traders often help price discovery, and the risk of insider trading can be managed with targeted oversight rather than broad prohibitions.
Prediction markets aren't gambling, in my view. They take skill, research, and judgment, just like trading stocks or futures. I urge the CFTC to craft rules that support innovation and access while addressing specific risks with precision. Please don't let fear of a few bad actors stop the rest of us from benefiting from these tools. I support well-regulated prediction markets that allow broad participation and deliver better information for public decision-making.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Ajy Kumar
