Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Cami Sowell, and I'm just a regular person from Texas who has taken an interest in prediction markets. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and Im writing to share why I believe the CFTC should support well-regulated prediction markets, as outlined in the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). Im not a financial expert, just someone who sees real value in these markets for people like me.
I started trading on prediction markets because they help me hedge personal financial risks. For example, I run a small side business selling handmade goods, and election outcomes or policy changes can impact my costs and taxes in ways I can't predict on my own. Trading on these markets lets me offset some of that uncertainty. Its not a game to me; its a practical tool. I also believe event contracts arent gambling. They take research and judgment, just like any other investment I might make. I read up on issues, analyze trends, and make informed decisions. Thats not luck or a roll of the dice; its a skill.
Beyond my personal use, Ive noticed something bigger. Prediction markets often produce forecasts that are way more accurate than polls or pundits on TV. Ive seen this myself when I compare market odds to what I hear in the news. The prices reflect real information aggregated from lots of people, not just guesses. And when informed traders participate, it makes those prices even sharper. That benefits everyone, not just those of us trading. Its like a public service, giving clearer signals about what might happen in politics, economics, or even weather events.
I know there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation, and I get why those are serious. But banning or over-restricting these markets isnt the answer. The CFTC already has laws and tools to go after bad actors. Use those instead of punishing regular folks like me who just want access to a legal, regulated space to manage risk and make informed choices. Im especially drawn to your questions 7 and 29 in the ANPR, about balancing innovation with consumer protection and whether informed trading helps price discovery. I think it does, and I believe regulation can protect users without stifling the benefits.
I urge the CFTC to craft rules that allow prediction markets to thrive under fair oversight. Dont shut them down or limit them so much that only big players can participate. Keep them open to everyday people like me who value the freedom to engage in these markets responsibly.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Cami Sowell
