Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Alex Russell, and I'm a finance professional based in Nevada. I've been working in the financial sector for years, analyzing markets and helping clients make informed decisions. I'm writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've actively traded on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe these markets provide unique value to individuals like me, businesses, and society as a whole.
Prediction markets aren't just a niche hobby; they produce forecasts that are often more accurate than polls or pundits. I've seen this firsthand while trading on election outcomes and economic indicators. The aggregated wisdom of many traders, putting real money on the line, cuts through the noise of opinion and bias. This isn't gambling, it's a serious tool for price discovery that benefits everyone, not just those of us who trade. I also use these markets to hedge personal financial risks, like potential policy changes that could impact my investments or income. For businesses, the ability to hedge against regulatory or political uncertainty is just as real and valuable.
I'm particularly concerned about the idea of over-restricting or banning these markets. I've traded on regulated platforms like Kalshi, and the transparency and oversight give me confidence. If the CFTC clamps down too hard, activity will just move to unregulated offshore platforms with no consumer protections. I've seen what happens in other financial spaces when regulation pushes legitimate activity into the shadows, and it's not pretty. The U.S. should be leading in financial innovation, not ceding ground to other countries. Regulated markets are the way to keep things safe and transparent.
I also want to address some of the specific questions in the ANPR. On Questions 7-14 regarding public interest, I believe the balance tips toward innovation when markets are regulated properly. Prediction markets improve decision-making for the public and policymakers with better data. On Questions 15-22 about listed activities, I urge the CFTC to avoid classifying event contracts as gaming. They serve real economic purposes, like hedging and forecasting, distinct from gambling. And on Questions 29-32 about inside information, I think informed trading actually helps price discovery, benefiting all participants. The CFTC already has robust tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading; those should be enforced rather than imposing broad bans.
I acknowledge there are risks, like potential manipulation. But banning or over-restricting these markets punishes the majority of honest participants. Targeted, proportionate regulation is the answer, not categorical prohibitions. I strongly urge the CFTC to support the continued growth of prediction markets under a fair regulatory framework that protects consumers while fostering innovation.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Alex Russell
