Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Abbie Saxen, and I'm a trader and investor from Ohio. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I'm writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I urge the CFTC to craft rules that allow them to thrive under proper oversight.
As a trader, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets offer insights you cant get anywhere else. Their forecasts on elections and public events consistently outperform polls and pundits. Ive used these markets to better understand likely outcomes, whether its a presidential race or a major policy shift, and I know others rely on this data too. Its not just about trading; its about having access to real, aggregated information. Academic research backs this up, showing how prediction markets efficiently pool knowledge. I think the CFTC should consider this public benefit when shaping rules, especially in response to questions 7 and 8 about balancing innovation and public interest.
I also value my freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like Kalshi. These platforms are safe, transparent, and accountable, unlike unregulated offshore sites where theres no oversight. If the CFTC bans or over-restricts prediction markets, I worry itll push activity to those less safe venues. Ive traded enough to know that people will find ways to participate; the question is whether that happens under CFTC supervision or in shadowy corners of the internet. Id ask the Commission to think about this when addressing questions 33 and 34 on classification and regulatory impacts.
Finally, I believe the United States should be a leader in financial innovation. If we stifle prediction markets with heavy-handed rules, we risk ceding ground to other countries that embrace these tools. I want to see the US at the forefront, setting a model for how to regulate these markets responsibly. This ties into question 14 about the broader benefits of innovation, and I hope the CFTC agrees that leadership matters.
Im not blind to the risks. Insider trading or manipulation could be issues, but the CFTC already has tools to tackle those in other markets. Use them here too, instead of punishing everyone with broad restrictions. Im just a regular trader who values the information and opportunity these markets provide. Please support proportionate regulation that lets prediction markets operate legally and safely, without bans or overreach.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Abbie Saxen
