Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Guillermo Ramirez, and I'm a student from Missouri writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets, but I've been learning about them through my studies, and I strongly support their development under fair and reasonable regulation. I believe these markets offer unique value to society, and I want to express why I think the CFTC should encourage their growth rather than impose heavy restrictions.
As a student, I don't have a lot of money or insider access to high-level information, but I value the chance to participate in legal, regulated markets like these. Prediction markets give people like me a way to engage with real-world events, whether it's an election, an economic policy change, or even a weather event that might affect my community. The prices in these markets often provide insights that I can't find in news articles or polls. They aggregate what lots of people know or think, and that feels like a public good to me. Shutting regular folks out of these markets, or limiting who can trade, would mean that only big players get access to this information. I think democratizing that access is important.
What worries me most is the idea of banning or over-restricting prediction markets. If the CFTC makes it too hard to operate these platforms in the U.S., the activity won't just disappear. It'll move to unregulated offshore sites where there's no oversight, no consumer protection, and no accountability. I've read about platforms that operate outside U.S. jurisdiction, and they seem far riskier than something like a CFTC-registered market. I'd much rather see the U.S. lead on this, creating a safe and transparent space for prediction markets, than push people like me to less secure options. This ties into Questions 7 and 8 in your ANPR about balancing innovation with consumer protection. I think regulation is the answer, not prohibition.
I also want to address a concern I've seen raised about manipulation or insider trading, related to Questions 29 through 32. I get that these are real risks, but aren't there already laws against that kind of behavior? The CFTC has tools to go after bad actors without shutting down entire markets. Punishing everyone for the actions of a few doesn't seem fair or effective to me.
In closing, I urge the CFTC to support prediction markets with proportionate rules that protect consumers while allowing innovation. Please don't ban or overly restrict these markets. Let people like me participate in a regulated, safe environment rather than driving this activity offshore. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Guillermo Ramirez
