Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Lucas Wilson, and I'm a software engineer from Florida. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who works in tech and has used prediction markets a few times, I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States. I believe they offer real value, and I'm concerned about what happens if we don't get the regulation right.
I've used platforms like Kalshi to make small trades on event contracts, mostly out of curiosity about economic or political outcomes. What struck me is how these markets give insights you can't find elsewhere. They're not just fun, they help make sense of complex events by showing what people really think, based on where they put their money. As a tech person, I see this as a powerful tool for aggregating information, almost like a crowd-sourced algorithm. But more than that, I value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like these. I don't think everyday people like me should be locked out of tools that can help us understand and even hedge against uncertainty.
My biggest worry is that banning or over-restricting prediction markets won't stop them, it will just push the activity offshore to unregulated platforms. I've seen this in tech with other industries. If something is in demand, people find a way to access it, often through sketchy, unsafe sites with no oversight. A regulated market like Kalshi, under CFTC supervision, is far safer. It has transparency, rules, and accountability. Offshore platforms have none of that. If we over-regulate or shut down legitimate markets here, we're not protecting consumers, we're driving them to riskier options. I think this ties directly to some of the questions in your ANPR, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection. I believe the answer is clear: regulation, not prohibition, is the way to keep people safe while allowing innovation.
I also want to address a concern I know the CFTC has, like in Questions 29-32 about insider trading. I get why this is a worry, but the laws against it are already in place. The CFTC has tools to catch and punish bad actors without banning entire markets. Shutting down prediction markets to stop a few cheaters would hurt regular users like me who just want access to this information.
I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Keep them legal and safe under CFTC oversight so people like me can participate without being pushed to offshore alternatives. Thanks for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Lucas Wilson
