Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Valondre Barefield, and I'm a trader and investor based in Texas. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I'm writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets serve a valuable purpose for people like me, and for society as a whole, if done right.
As someone who trades regularly, I can tell you that prediction markets provide information you just can't get anywhere else. I've seen firsthand how their forecasts on elections and other public events are often more accurate than polls or pundits. That kind of insight helps me make better decisions, not just in trading but in understanding the world. I think it benefits everyone when we have access to better data, whether it's for personal planning or public decision-making. Plus, these markets let me hedge personal financial risks, like potential policy changes that could impact my investments or taxes. It's a practical tool, not a game.
I'm also worried about what happens if we over-restrict or ban these markets. I've looked at offshore platforms before, and they're nowhere near as safe or transparent as regulated markets like Kalshi. If the CFTC clamps down too hard, people like me will get pushed to those unregulated spaces, and that's worse for consumer protection. The US should be leading the way in financial innovation, not handing that advantage to other countries. Regulated markets keep activity here, under oversight, where it belongs.
I want to address a concern I know the CFTC has, especially around manipulation or insider trading. I get why that's a worry, but the answer isn't to shut down prediction markets. Those behaviors are already illegal, and the CFTC has the tools to enforce against them. Punishing everyone by restricting access doesn't make sense when you can target the bad actors instead. I'd urge you to look at Questions 7 and 29 from the ANPR, on balancing innovation with protection and the role of informed traders in price discovery. I believe regulated markets strike that balance and actually improve information through participation.
There's also solid academic research backing this up. Studies show prediction markets aggregate data efficiently, often outperforming traditional forecasting. That shouldn't be ignored. We need proportionate rules, not broad bans, to keep these benefits while addressing risks.
I respectfully ask the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets that allow everyday traders like me to participate legally and safely. Don't let over-restriction push innovation and activity offshore. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Valondre Barefield
