Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Joey Ternes, and I'm an everyday citizen from Michigan who actively trades on prediction markets like Kalshi. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets, and I want to share why I believe they are valuable for people like me and for society as a whole.
I've been trading on these platforms for a while now, and I can tell you firsthand that the information they provide is unlike anything else out there. Whether it's an election outcome or a major public event, prediction markets often give more accurate forecasts than polls or pundits. I rely on this data to make sense of what's happening, and I know others do too. It's not just about trading; it's about having better information to understand the world. I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Banning or over-restricting these platforms would likely push activity to unregulated offshore sites, which helps no one and puts users at risk.
I think the US should be a leader in financial innovation, not leave this space to other countries. Prediction markets are a cutting-edge tool, and we shouldn't fall behind by clamping down too hard. Plus, when informed traders participate, it improves price discovery for everyone. The more people bring their knowledge to the table, the better the market reflects reality. That's a public good, not a problem. And let's be clear: event contracts aren't gambling. They serve real economic purposes, like helping people hedge risks or make informed decisions. I've read about academic research, like studies by economists who show how these markets aggregate information efficiently, and I think that data transparency is a huge plus.
I'm aware of concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get why those are issues. But the CFTC already has tools to tackle bad actors, and those laws should be enforced rather than banning entire markets. I also think it's worth looking at specific questions in your ANPR, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, and Question 15 on defining gaming versus legitimate markets. I urge you to focus on proportionate rules that address risks without stifling the benefits of prediction markets.
In closing, I ask that the CFTC support regulated prediction markets with fair, targeted regulations. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Let's keep this innovative tool accessible to everyday people like me while ensuring it's safe and transparent.
Sincerely,
Joey Ternes
