Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jeremy Taylor, and I'm just a regular citizen from Arizona writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im not a big shot or tied to any corporation, but I do actively trade on prediction markets like Kalshi, and I believe these markets can be a real benefit to everyday people like me if theyre regulated the right way.
I care about this issue because I think prediction markets can help level the playing field. Most of us regular folks dont have access to the kind of information or influence that big businesses do. We rely on whatever news or polls we can find, which are often wrong or biased. Prediction markets, though, give us a different kind of insight. The prices reflect what people actually think will happen, based on real money theyre willing to put down. Ive found that to be way more reliable for understanding things like election outcomes or economic shifts than anything I hear on TV. That kind of information helps me make better decisions in my own life, whether its planning my budget or just understanding whats coming down the road. I believe this price discovery benefits not just me, but the whole public.
What worries me, though, is the idea of over-restricting or banning these markets. Ive seen what unregulated offshore platforms look like, and theyre a mess. No oversight, no protections, just a free-for-all where regular traders like me can get burned. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC rules, are so much safer. Theyve got transparency and accountability. If you push too hard with restrictions, people will just go to those shady offshore sites instead, and thats worse for everyone. Regulation should keep us in a safe, supervised space, not drive us away from it.
I also want to touch on something specific to my experience trading. Sometimes, the market jumps unpredictably when someone with a lot more money than the average person buys in big. It can throw off the whole price, and smaller traders like me dont always see it coming. Id like the CFTC to think about ways to inform or warn traders about sudden dips or spikes, maybe through better reporting or alerts. This ties into some of your questions, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, and Question 29 on how informed traders affect price discovery. I think more transparency around big trades could help keep things fair without shutting down the market.
In closing, I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Keep platforms like Kalshi operating under clear, fair rules so everyday citizens like me can benefit from better information without being pushed to unsafe business, i will say you should add a drop prediction because people dont have full confidence in what there betting on then you have one guy with a lot of money go onto the other side and persuade people into buying because they saw the number jump drastically. just comes off like another big corporate money making jig,
Sincerely,
Jeremy Taylor
