Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Karan Patel, and I'm a regular citizen from New York writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm pretty new to prediction markets, but I've been following them closely, and I strongly support their role in our economy under fair and balanced regulation.
I believe prediction markets offer something unique: better information. I've seen how their forecasts on elections and public events often beat polls and pundits. That kind of accuracy isn't just useful for traders like me who want to participate; it helps everyone, from journalists to policymakers, make sense of the world. It's also about freedom. I think regular people should have the right to take part in legal, regulated markets like Kalshi, which I think is awesome. Keeping these markets open to everyday folks, not just big institutions, makes the information they produce more transparent and widely available. Plus, it keeps the U.S. competitive in financial innovation. We shouldn't be falling behind other countries by over-restricting something so promising.
I'm also convinced that prediction markets aren't gambling. They let people hedge real risks, like a small business owner protecting against policy changes or an individual worried about election outcomes impacting taxes. This is about research and judgment, not luck. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" feels wrong to me; they have legitimate economic value. And honestly, informed trading only makes prices more accurate, which benefits everyone in the market. I think this ties directly to your questions 7 through 14 on public interest and price discovery, as well as questions 15 through 22 on how to define listed activities.
I get that there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading. But the CFTC already has strong tools to handle those issues in other markets. Why not adapt them here instead of banning broad categories of contracts? I also worry that over-restricting prediction markets will just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are way less safe. Look at Kalshi; a regulated market like that is clearly the better option. This connects to questions 29 through 32 on inside information and how to manage risks without shutting everything down.
I've read about academic research supporting prediction markets, showing they aggregate data efficiently. That kind of transparency matters to me as a citizen who wants better public decision-making. So, my ask is simple. Please support proportionate, targeted regulation that addresses specific risks without broad bans. Let's keep the U.S. leading in financial innovation and ensure regular people like me can participate in safe, regulated markets.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Karan Patel
