Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Isaac Echeagaray, and I'm a regular blue-collar worker from California. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I want to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets. I love being able to trade freely on my favorite app without unnecessary government overreach, and I believe these markets provide real value to people like me and to society as a whole.
As someone who isn't a financial expert or a big investor, I find prediction markets incredibly useful. They give me access to information I can't get from polls or news pundits. I've seen firsthand how these markets often predict election outcomes or public events more accurately than so-called experts. That kind of insight helps me make better decisions, whether it's about my personal finances or just understanding what's happening in the world. I also use these markets to hedge real risks. For instance, trading on economic events like inflation data helps me offset worries about rising costs for my family. This isn't gambling to me. It takes research and thought, just like any other kind of investing.
I'm also concerned about what happens if these markets get banned or over-restricted. I've never felt so secure trading anywhere as I do on Kalshi, a regulated platform under CFTC oversight. If you push these markets offshore to unregulated sites, people like me lose that protection. Regulation is important for consumer safety, but it needs to be fair and targeted. The CFTC already has strong tools to stop manipulation and insider trading in other markets. I believe those can work here too, without broad bans that punish honest traders. Plus, informed trading actually makes prices more accurate, which benefits everyone.
I also want to touch on a few specific questions from the ANPR. On Questions 7 to 14 about public interest, I think prediction markets balance innovation with consumer protection when they're regulated properly. They help with price discovery and risk management for regular folks, not just big institutions. On Questions 15 to 22 about listed activities, I strongly believe event contracts aren't gaming. They serve real economic purposes, like hedging and forecasting. And on Questions 33 to 40 about classification, I urge you to avoid treating these as gambling or over-burdening small platforms. The U.S. should lead in financial innovation, not let other countries take over.
I've read about academic research supporting prediction markets, and it backs up my experience. These platforms improve transparency and forecasting, and they give everyday people like me a fair shot to participate. Please don't shut that down. I ask you to support proportionate regulation that addresses specific risks without banning or over-restricting prediction markets.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Isaac Echeagaray
