Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Elijah Esch, and I'm a small business owner from Minnesota. Im writing to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). Ive been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe these markets provide unique value both to me personally and to society as a whole. Im concerned that overly restrictive rules could limit my freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets and push activity to less safe, unregulated spaces.
As a business owner, I rely on accurate information to make decisions about my company. Prediction markets have consistently given me insights that I cant get from polls or pundits. Whether its forecasting election outcomes that could affect tax policies or economic indicators that impact my costs, the prices on these platforms often cut through the noise and provide a clearer picture. Ive seen firsthand how the aggregated wisdom of many traders can outperform so-called experts. This isnt just helpful for me; its a public good. Better information leads to better decision-making for everyone, from individuals to policymakers.
I also value the freedom to participate in these regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi operate under CFTC oversight, which gives me confidence that there are rules in place to prevent manipulation and ensure fairness. If we over-regulate or ban these markets, people like me wont just stop trading. Well get pushed to unregulated offshore platforms with no protections. Thats not a solution; its a step backward. Regulated markets are the safer choice, and I want to keep access to them.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from your ANPR. On Question 7, regarding the balance between innovation and consumer protection, I believe the CFTC can achieve both by focusing on targeted rules for specific risks rather than broad restrictions. And on Question 11, about price discovery, I strongly feel that prediction markets contribute positively by aggregating information in a way nothing else does. Banning or over-restricting them would mean losing that benefit.
I understand there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation. But those are already illegal, and the CFTC has the tools to enforce against bad actors. Shutting down entire markets to stop a few bad apples punishes honest participants like me. Instead, I urge you to focus on proportionate regulation that keeps these markets accessible while addressing specific risks.
Thank you for considering my perspective. I respectfully ask that the CFTC support well-regulated prediction markets and avoid bans or overly restrictive rules that could harm regular traders and push activity to unsafe platforms.
Sincerely,
Elijah Esch
