Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Hernesto Aguirre, and I'm just a regular guy from California who wants to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe these markets are valuable and should be supported with fair regulation, not banned or overly restricted.
I got into prediction markets because they give me a way to engage with events that affect my life, like elections or economic decisions. It's not just about making a few bucks. It's about having access to information and forecasts that I can't find anywhere else. These markets often predict outcomes better than polls or news pundits, and as an everyday citizen, I value having a small stake in that process. I feel like my voice matters more when I can participate in a regulated space like Kalshi.
What worries me is the idea of banning or over-restricting these markets. If that happens, people like me won't just stop trading. We'll get pushed to unregulated offshore platforms that don't have any oversight. I've seen those sites, and they're a mess. No consumer protections, no transparency. Regulated markets like Kalshi are so much safer, with clear rules and accountability. Why drive activity to sketchy places when we can keep it here under the CFTC's watch? I think this ties into Questions 7 and 8 from your ANPR about balancing innovation with consumer protection. Regulation, not restriction, is the way to protect folks like me.
I also don't think event contracts should be lumped in with gambling. Trading on these markets takes research and thought, just like investing in stocks. I'm not rolling dice; I'm making informed decisions. These contracts have real economic purposes, like hedging risks or understanding market sentiment. Calling them "gaming" feels wrong, and I hope you'll consider this when looking at Questions 15 and 16 on defining legitimate markets.
Finally, I believe the US should be a leader in financial innovation. If we clamp down too hard on prediction markets, other countries will step in and take the lead. We have the chance to set the standard with smart regulation, and I hope we don't miss it. I'm not an expert, but I know that as a regular citizen, I want to keep participating in legal, safe markets here at home.
Please support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban them or make the rules so tight that people like me can't take part. Thanks for reading my thoughts.
Sincerely,
Hernesto Aguirre
