Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Casey Winger, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Colorado. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe these markets serve a valuable purpose for people like me. I want to urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets, not bans or overly harsh restrictions.
I first got into prediction markets because I was tired of relying on polls and pundits for information about elections and other big public events. I've found that the forecasts on these platforms are often way more accurate than what I see on TV or read online. That kind of insight isn't just useful for traders; it helps everyone make better decisions, whether you're planning for a business move or just trying to understand what's coming next. It's frustrating to think this tool could be taken away or limited because of overregulation.
As someone who values the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets, I appreciate that platforms like Kalshi operate under CFTC oversight. That makes me feel safer trading there compared to unregulated offshore sites. If the CFTC bans or over-restricts these markets, I worry activity will just get pushed to those less safe venues. I'd much rather see the US lead on this with smart rules that keep things transparent and fair.
I also use prediction markets to hedge real risks. For example, I've placed trades on election outcomes because they could impact policies that affect my taxes and cost of living. This isn't gambling; it's a practical way to manage uncertainty, much like how businesses or farmers might hedge against price changes. I don't think event contracts should be labeled as gaming. They serve legitimate economic purposes, like price discovery and risk management.
I'm also not worried about informed trading. If someone has good information, their trades make the market's predictions more accurate, and that benefits everyone. On the flip side, I understand concerns about insider trading or manipulation, but those are already illegal. The CFTC has tools to address bad actors without punishing the rest of us. In response to Questions 29-32 from the ANPR, I'd argue that informed trading often improves price discovery, and the focus should be on enforcing existing laws, not creating broad bans.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to regulate prediction markets in a targeted, proportionate way. Address specific risks with specific rules, as discussed in Questions 7-14 on balancing innovation and protection. Don't shut down or over-restrict these markets. Theyre a valuable tool for people like me, and with the right oversight, they can thrive safely.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Casey Winger
