Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Yonathan Calbayeira, and I'm just an everyday citizen from New Jersey. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they offer real value to people like me, and I hope the CFTC will create rules that let these markets thrive without over-restricting them.
As someone who trades on Kalshi, I value the freedom to participate in a legal, regulated market. These platforms aren't just a hobby; they help me make sense of the world. The prices on prediction markets often tell me things I can't find in news or polls. They're a tool for understanding events that affect my life, like elections or economic decisions. I don't think this is gambling at all. It's research and judgment, much like trading stocks. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" ignores their legitimate economic purpose, whether it's hedging risks or gaining insight through price discovery. I'd urge the CFTC to consider this in response to Questions 15-22 about defining gaming versus legitimate markets.
I'm also worried that banning or over-restricting these markets will push activity to unregulated offshore platforms. I've seen what happens when people can't access safe, legal options. They go elsewhere, to places with no oversight. Kalshi, as a CFTC-registered market, is far safer than any offshore alternative. If the U.S. wants to lead in financial innovation, we can't afford to cede this space to other countries. Let's keep these markets here, under proper supervision. This ties to Questions 7-14 on balancing innovation and consumer protection.
Lastly, I believe informed trading actually helps everyone. When people with knowledge trade, the prices get more accurate, benefiting all participants. Yes, insider trading is a concern, but it's already illegal, and the CFTC has tools to address manipulation. Broad bans or categorical restrictions punish honest traders like me instead of targeting bad actors. Proportionate, targeted rules are the way to go. I hope you'll consider this in relation to Questions 29-32 on inside information and price discovery.
Prediction markets matter to regular folks like me. They're a way to engage with the world and protect against uncertainty. I respectfully ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that allows these markets to grow while addressing specific risks with focused rules. Please don't ban or overly restrict them.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Yonathan Calbayeira
