Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ethan LaBay, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Michigan writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide real value, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow regular people like me to keep participating in a safe, legal way.
I got into prediction markets because I wanted a way to engage with the events shaping our world, from elections to economic indicators. Trading on Kalshi isn't just a hobby. It's a way to make sense of complex issues and sometimes hedge against risks that affect my budget, like inflation numbers impacting my costs. I put time into researching and understanding these events, just like I would with any other investment. To me, calling this "gambling" feels wrong. It's not a game of chance; it's about judgment and analysis. I think the CFTC should recognize that event contracts serve real economic purposes, like price discovery and hedging, as you discuss in Questions 15 to 22 about defining legitimate markets versus gaming.
What worries me most is the idea of banning or over-restricting these markets. I've seen unregulated offshore platforms out there, and they're nowhere near as safe or transparent as a CFTC-regulated exchange like Kalshi. If the rules become too tight, people like me won't just stop trading. We'll get pushed to those sketchy sites where there's no oversight at all. Id rather keep my money and data on a platform I trust, one that follows U.S. rules. This ties into Questions 7 to 14 on balancing innovation and consumer protection. Regulation should protect us, not push us into riskier corners of the internet.
On top of that, I believe the United States should be a leader in financial innovation. If we clamp down too hard on prediction markets, we're handing the future of this technology to other countries. I want to see American companies and platforms setting the standard, not falling behind. This connects to the broader public interest concerns in your ANPR.
I'm not saying there aren't risks. I get that manipulation or insider trading could be issues, but the CFTC already has tools to handle those in other markets. Use them here too, without shutting down the whole system. I urge you to create proportionate rules that address specific problems while letting regular citizens participate in legal, regulated prediction markets.
Thank you for considering my perspective. I hope you'll support a framework that keeps innovation alive and protects people like me who want to engage in these markets responsibly.
Sincerely,
Ethan LaBay
