Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Javier Ramirez, and I'm just a regular guy from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe theyre a valuable tool when properly regulated. I'm not an expert or a big-time trader, but I care deeply about having the freedom to participate in legal, safe markets here in the US.
I support prediction markets because they give people like me a chance to engage with real-world events in a meaningful way. I've placed small trades on platforms like Kalshi, which is regulated by the CFTC, and it feels a lot safer than the sketchy offshore sites out there. That's a big deal to me. If the US bans or over-restricts these markets, people aren't going to stop trading. They'll just go to unregulated platforms overseas where there's no oversight, no consumer protection, nothing. Are we really going to give all these markets to offshore operators? If so, I think the US is selling out on a chance to lead. We should be setting the standard for financial innovation, not handing that advantage to other countries.
I also believe that when people trade with good information, it makes the market smarter overall. Informed trading isn't a bad thing; it helps set accurate prices that benefit everyone, even those who don't trade. It's not gambling, it's a way to crowdsource knowledge. I've seen how these markets can predict outcomes better than polls or talking heads on TV. Thats valuable to society, not just to me.
Looking at some of the questions in the ANPR, I want to address a couple from the Public Interest section, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection. I think the answer is clear: regulate, don't ban. Keep platforms like Kalshi under CFTC rules so people have a safe place to trade. And for Question 29 on inside information, Id say informed trading often improves price discovery, as long as it's not illegal insider trading, which is already against the law. The CFTC has tools to handle bad actors without shutting down entire markets.
Im not saying there arent risks. I get that some people might try to game the system. But punishing everyone by restricting access isnt the answer. Focus on enforcing the rules you already have. Let regular folks like me keep participating in a regulated space. Im asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets, not heavy-handed bans or limits that push activity offshore. Keep the US in the lead on this.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Javier Ramirez
