Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Miguel Gaucin, and I'm a freelance personal trainer based in California. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm relatively new to prediction markets, but I've started using platforms like Kalshi to make some extra money on the side, and I strongly support having these markets regulated in a fair and balanced way.
As a freelancer, my income can be unpredictable. I rely on a steady stream of clients, but things like economic shifts or policy changes can impact how much people are willing to spend on personal training. That's why I see prediction markets as more than just a side hustle. They're a way for me to hedge against financial risks that could affect my small business. For example, if there's an event contract on a potential tax change or a major economic indicator like inflation, I can use that to offset some of the uncertainty I face. It's not gambling to me; it's a practical tool, much like how I budget or plan my expenses based on what I think might happen.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading in these markets, and I get that. Those are real issues. But the answer isn't to shut down or overly restrict prediction markets. The CFTC already has rules and tools to go after bad actors, and I think focusing on enforcing those is better than punishing everyone by limiting access. Plus, platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are a much safer place for someone like me to participate compared to unregulated offshore sites. If you make it too hard to trade on regulated markets, people will just go to those riskier, less transparent platforms. That seems like a step backward.
I noticed a few of your questions in the ANPR, like Question 7 on balancing innovation with consumer protection and Question 23 on how to determine public interest for these contracts. I think the CFTC should prioritize keeping markets like Kalshi accessible while setting clear, reasonable rules to protect users. Don't let a few potential risks overshadow the benefits for regular people like me who use these tools responsibly.
I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. They provide unique value for hedging risks and accessing information, and with the right oversight, they can be a safe and fair space for everyone. Please don't over-restrict or ban them.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Miguel Gaucin
