Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Cameron Schimmel, and I'm just a regular guy from New Jersey writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide real value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will create rules that allow these markets to thrive without over-restricting them.
I got into prediction markets because I wanted better information about things that affect my life, like election outcomes or economic indicators. Honestly, I've found the forecasts on these platforms to be way more accurate than what I hear from polls or TV pundits. I remember last year, during a big election cycle, the prediction market I use had the outcome pegged weeks before the final results, while the so-called experts were all over the place. That kind of insight isn't just useful for traders; it's valuable for anyone trying to make sense of the world. If regular folks like me can access and contribute to these markets, the information gets even sharper. Keeping this locked up for big institutions seems unfair and less effective.
I also want to push back on the idea that event contracts are just gambling. That's not how I see it at all. When I trade on Kalshi, I'm not flipping a coin or betting on a sports game. I'm doing research, reading up on current events, and making informed guesses about what might happen. It's no different from the kind of judgment people use when they invest in stocks or other markets. Plus, these contracts have real economic purposes. I've used them to hedge against things like inflation data that could hit my budget hard. Calling this "gaming" feels like a misstep to me.
I'm aware there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation, and I get that those are real issues. But the CFTC already has laws and tools to deal with bad actors. Banning or overly restricting prediction markets to stop a few cheaters punishes everyone else who uses them responsibly. It's like closing a highway because some people speed. I think the focus should be on enforcing the rules we already have.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I want to address Question 8 under Public Interest. Prediction markets do serve the public good by giving us better data and letting everyday people participate in price discovery. And on Question 15 under Listed Activities, I urge you not to lump event contracts in with gambling. Theyre a legitimate tool for forecasting and hedging.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please don't ban or over-restrict them. Theyre a useful tool for people like me, and with the right oversight, they can keep benefiting society.
Sincerely,
Cameron Schimmel
