Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Arthur Ogleznev, and I'm a journalist based in Washington state. I've spent years covering political and economic trends, often trying to make sense of conflicting polls and expert opinions. Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, published in the Federal Register as 91 FR 12516. I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States, and Id like to share why I believe theyre valuable, both to me personally and to the broader public.
As a journalist, Im always hunting for reliable data to cut through the noise. I've used prediction markets a few times to gauge outcomes on elections and policy shifts, and Ive been struck by how often their forecasts beat traditional polls or pundit predictions. The aggregated wisdom of these markets, where real money is on the line, often reveals insights I cant get from surveys or talking heads. This isnt just helpful for me in crafting accurate stories; its a public good. When prediction markets are accessible and transparent, they democratize information that would otherwise be locked away with big institutions or insiders.
I understand there are concerns about consumer protection, and I share them. Thats why I believe regulation, not restriction, is the answer. If the CFTC creates a clear framework for these markets, it keeps activity onshore with oversight, rather than pushing traders to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no protection at all. Ive seen firsthand how bad information can spread in unregulated spaces. We dont need that with prediction markets. A regulated system ensures accountability while preserving the innovation and forecasting power these markets offer.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, regarding balancing innovation with consumer protection, I think the CFTC should prioritize rules that prevent fraud and manipulation without stifling access for everyday people like me. On Question 11, about the public interest benefits of price discovery, I can say from experience that prediction markets offer unique signals about future events that improve public understanding, whether its an election or a regulatory change. These arent gambling dens; theyre tools for insight, requiring research and judgment just like any other investment.
Im not blind to risks like insider trading or manipulation, but those are already illegal under existing laws. The CFTC has the authority to enforce those rules without banning entire categories of event contracts. Shutting down prediction markets to stop a few bad actors would be like canceling all news coverage because of a few biased reporters. It punishes the wrong people.
I urge the Commission to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep them accessible, transparent, and safe through oversight, but dont over-restrict or ban them. Theyre too valuable a tool for information and understanding in a world full of uncertainty.
Sincerely,
Arthur Ogleznev
