Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Joshua Heikkman, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Idaho writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I hope my perspective as a regular person using these markets can help inform your approach.
I rely on prediction markets to get a clearer picture of what's happening with elections and other big public events. Honestly, the forecasts on these platforms have been way more accurate than anything I see from polls or pundits on TV. That kind of information isn't just helpful for me when I trade; it's valuable for anyone trying to understand the world. Beyond that, I value the freedom to participate in a legal, regulated space like Kalshi. It's a fair way for someone like me to have a stake in these events, and it feels safer knowing there's oversight compared to some sketchy offshore site.
I'm worried that banning or over-restricting these markets would just push people like me to unregulated platforms outside the US. That doesn't solve any problems; it makes them worse. I'd much rather trade on a platform under CFTC rules where there's accountability. Plus, I know the CFTC already has strong tools to stop manipulation and insider trading. I've read about your existing powers to go after bad actors in other markets, and I think those can work here too. You don't need to ban entire categories of contracts to handle a few risks.
I also see real practical value in these markets. For example, I run a small side business, and being able to hedge against political or economic changes, like a new policy that could hit my costs, helps me plan better. It's not gambling; it's about managing real risks. The US should be leading the way on financial tools like this, not letting other countries take over. I believe the answer is proportionate regulation, not broad bans. Target the specific issues, like manipulation, without shutting down the whole system.
I noticed some of the questions in the ANPR, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, and Question 14 on public benefits. I think regulated prediction markets strike that balance by offering useful information and hedging options while keeping oversight in place. On Question 29 about insider trading, I agree it's a concern, but the laws are already there to stop it. Focus on enforcing those, not restricting the markets.
In closing, I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Let regular people like me keep using these tools in a safe, regulated way. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Joshua Heikkman
