Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Anthony Sciaba, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Connecticut writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they have real value for people like me. I want to urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets rather than banning or over-restricting them.
Ive found prediction markets helpful for getting a sense of what might happen with big events, whether it's an election or an economic decision. The information I get from the prices is often clearer than what I hear from news or polls. But more than that, I see these markets as a tool, not a game. Trading on them isn't like gambling at a casino. It takes research and thought, much like investing in stocks. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" feels wrong to me because they serve real purposes, like helping people understand risks or even hedge against outcomes that affect their lives. I think the CFTC should recognize this economic value, especially when considering questions 15 through 22 about defining gaming versus legitimate markets.
I'm also worried about what happens if these markets get banned or over-regulated. Right now, platforms like Kalshi operate under CFTC oversight, which makes me feel safer using them. There are rules in place, and someone is watching. But if the CFTC cracks down too hard, people won't just stop trading. They'll go to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no protection at all. I've read about these sites, and they seem much riskier. Pushing activity offshore doesn't solve problems; it makes them worse. I hope the CFTC keeps this in mind when looking at questions 7 through 14 on balancing innovation and consumer protection.
I know there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation. I get that. Those are real issues. But the CFTC already has laws and tools to deal with bad actors. Shutting down or heavily restricting prediction markets to stop a few cheaters punishes everyone else who uses them responsibly. Let's focus on enforcing the rules we have instead of throwing out something useful.
I'm just a regular guy, not an expert, but I think prediction markets can benefit society if they're handled right. Please regulate them in a way that's fair and proportionate. Don't let over-restriction push people like me to unsafe platforms, and recognize that event contracts aren't gambling; they're a legitimate tool. I appreciate the chance to weigh in on this.
Sincerely,
Anthony Sciaba
