Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Mani K, and I'm a software engineer based in Alabama. I'm writing to express my strong support for the proportionate regulation of prediction markets as outlined in the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, I've seen firsthand the value these markets provide, and I believe the CFTC has a real opportunity to foster innovation while protecting consumers.
I got into prediction markets a couple of years ago because I wanted better information about events that impact my life and work. As a tech professional, I rely on accurate forecasts for things like economic policy changes or election outcomes that could affect my industry. Prediction markets consistently provide signals that are sharper than polls or pundits. Thats not just useful for me as a trader; its valuable for everyone, from policymakers to regular citizens trying to make sense of the world. Ive also used these markets to hedge personal financial risks, like betting on inflation data to offset uncertainty around my budget. This isnt gambling. Its a thoughtful process of research and judgment, much like any other investment.
Im particularly drawn to the academic research showing how prediction markets aggregate information efficiently. Informed trading, even by those with unique insights, improves price discovery for all participants. Banning or over-restricting these markets would kill that benefit. On the flip side, I understand the CFTCs concerns about insider trading or manipulation. But those issues are already illegal under existing laws, and the Commission has tools to enforce them. Shutting down entire markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing everyone for the actions of a few. Id urge you to consider targeted rules instead of broad bans, as discussed in Questions 7 and 29 of the ANPR, which address balancing innovation with consumer protection and the role of informed traders in price discovery.
I also worry about pushing activity offshore if regulation becomes too heavy-handed. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated alternatives. Plus, the US should be leading in financial innovation, not ceding ground to other countries. Regarding Question 15 on defining legitimate markets versus gaming, I believe event contracts serve real economic purposes like hedging and forecasting, distinct from gambling. They give people like me a chance to participate in legal, regulated spaces and make informed decisions.
I ask the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets with rules that address specific risks without stifling the benefits. Proportionate regulation will keep these markets accessible, transparent, and useful for all. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Mani K
