Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Bridger Larsen, and I'm a trader and investor from Utah. I work an entry-level job, and I make some side income by trading on prediction markets like Kalshi. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) because this issue hits close to home. It's my money, and I believe I should have the freedom to use it in legal, regulated markets as I see fit.
I've been actively trading on Kalshi for a while now, and I can tell you these markets aren't just a game or a gamble. They take real research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. I spend hours reading up on election trends, economic data, and public events to make informed trades. The prices on these platforms often give me insights I can't find in polls or news. For example, during the last election cycle, Kalshi's odds were closer to the actual outcome than most pundits I followed. That kind of forecasting isn't just useful to me as a trader; it's valuable to anyone trying to understand what's really happening.
I strongly believe event contracts shouldn't be labeled as gaming. They serve a real economic purpose, whether it's helping me hedge against uncertainty or providing accurate signals about future events. I'm also worried about overly restrictive rules or outright bans. If the CFTC clamps down too hard, people like me won't just stop trading. We'll get pushed to unregulated offshore platforms that are far less safe. I've seen those sites out there, and they don't have the oversight or protections that a regulated market like Kalshi offers. The US should be leading the way in financial innovation, not handing the advantage to other countries by driving activity underground.
On the topic of manipulation and insider trading, I get the concern. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle those issues in other markets. Why not apply the same approach here? Banning or over-restricting prediction markets punishes honest traders like me instead of targeting bad actors. Plus, when informed traders participate, it actually makes the prices more accurate, which benefits everyone. I think your questions 29 and 31 in the ANPR, about inside information and price discovery, get at this point. My view is that informed trading helps the market reflect reality better, and existing laws already cover misuse of nonpublic info.
I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible to regular folks like me, under clear rules that protect participants without stifling innovation. Thanks for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Bridger Larsen
