Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Damian Oropeza, and I'm a student from California. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe that well-regulated prediction markets are valuable and should not be banned or overly restricted.
As a student, I spend a lot of time learning about the world, analyzing data, and trying to understand complex events. Trading on prediction markets has been an incredible way for me to engage with real-world issues, from elections to economic indicators. It's not just a hobby. It helps me think critically and make informed judgments, much like researching for a paper or project. I see the prices on these markets as a unique source of information, often more accurate than polls or pundits. That benefits everyone, not just traders like me.
I strongly believe that regular people like me should have the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets won't stop people from wanting to trade on events. It will just push activity to unregulated, offshore platforms where theres no oversight or consumer protection. I've seen friends casually mention using foreign sites when certain contracts aren't available here. Thats a real risk. Keeping these markets regulated under the CFTC ensures transparency and safety, and I think that's the better path.
I also want to address the idea of classifying event contracts as gaming. I don't see it that way at all. Trading on prediction markets requires research, analysis, and judgment about real-world outcomes. It's no different from skills used in stock or commodity trading. These contracts serve legitimate purposes, like hedging against uncertainty. For example, I've used them to bet on economic data releases that could affect my future job prospects or student loan rates. Thats not gambling. Its a practical tool.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to comment on Question 15 about defining gaming versus legitimate markets. I urge you to recognize that event contracts have economic value through price discovery and risk management, distinct from pure chance-based activities. Also, on Question 7 regarding balancing innovation and consumer protection, I believe the CFTC can achieve both by focusing on targeted rules for manipulation or insider trading, rather than broad restrictions that hurt regular participants.
I ask that you support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Allow students like me, and others across the country, to keep engaging in these legal, regulated spaces where we can learn, participate, and contribute to better information for everyone.
Sincerely,
Damian Oropeza
