Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Branden Burnett, and I'm a student from Georgia. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide unique value, especially for forecasting elections and other public events, and I want to urge the CFTC to craft rules that encourage their growth rather than restrict them.
I've been trading on prediction markets for a while now, and what draws me to them is how they cut through the noise. As a student, Im constantly trying to make sense of complex events like elections or policy changes for my studies. Traditional polls and pundits often miss the mark, but prediction markets aggregate real opinions backed by real money. The prices I see on Kalshi have consistently been more accurate than what I read in the news. This isn't just useful for me as a trader; it helps everyone who wants clearer insight into what might happen next. It's like having a public dashboard of collective knowledge.
I also believe that informed trading, where people bring their research and analysis to the table, makes these markets better for everyone. When I trade, I spend hours digging into data, reading up on candidates, or analyzing past trends. That effort contributes to prices that reflect reality more closely. This ties directly to some of the CFTC's questions, like Question 29 on whether informed traders aid price discovery. My answer is a clear yes. Shutting down or over-restricting these markets would mean losing that valuable signal, which benefits not just traders but anyone paying attention, from journalists to policymakers.
I understand there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation. Those are real issues, but I don't think the solution is to ban or heavily limit prediction markets. The CFTC already has rules and tools to tackle fraud and manipulation in other markets. Why not apply those here? Plus, laws already exist to stop federal employees or others from misusing nonpublic information. Punishing all of us by restricting these platforms feels unfair when the focus should be on enforcing existing protections.
Prediction markets aren't gambling, in my view. They take skill and judgment, just like trading stocks. And they give regular people like me a chance to participate, not just big institutions. That democratic access makes the information even richer. I hope the CFTC, in considering Questions 7 and 8 about public interest and innovation, sees the value in keeping these markets open to everyday traders.
In closing, I ask that you support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please don't impose broad bans or overly tight restrictions. Focus on targeted rules to address specific risks while preserving the benefits these markets bring to people like me and to society as a whole. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Branden Burnett
