Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Tue Vu, and I'm an everyday citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the proportionate regulation of prediction markets. These markets provide unique value to people like me, and I believe the CFTC should encourage their growth under a fair regulatory framework rather than impose bans or overly restrictive rules.
As someone who isn't a financial expert or big investor, trading on prediction markets gives me a real incentive to stay informed about current events and economic trends. I find myself reading more, digging into data, and thinking critically about what's happening in the world. Beyond personal growth, I see how these markets produce forecasts that are often more accurate than polls or pundits. That kind of information isn't just helpful to traders; it benefits the public, media, and even policymakers who need reliable insights. I've also used these markets to hedge personal financial risks, like protecting against unexpected shifts in inflation or policy changes that could affect my budget. This isn't gambling to me. It takes research and judgment, much like any other investment, and serves a real economic purpose.
I'm concerned that banning or over-restricting prediction markets would push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe than regulated markets like Kalshi. The US has a chance to lead in financial innovation here, and we shouldn't cede that to other countries. I also believe that informed trading, even by those with specialized knowledge, improves price discovery and makes markets more accurate for everyone. Academic research backs this up, showing how prediction markets aggregate information efficiently. Instead of broad categorical bans or labeling event contracts as gaming, the CFTC should focus on targeted rules to address specific risks like manipulation, which are already illegal under existing laws.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address a few from Topic Area B on Public Interest, like Question 7 about balancing innovation and consumer protection. I think regulated markets strike that balance by ensuring transparency and safety while allowing innovation to flourish. On Question 15 from Topic Area C about defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I urge you to recognize that event contracts are not gambling when they help people hedge real risks or contribute to price discovery.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support the growth of prediction markets through proportionate regulation. Don't let fear of a few bad actors lead to rules that punish everyday users like me or drive this valuable tool offshore. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Tue Vu
