Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is XY YZ, and I'm a trader and investor based in Kansas. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets, and I want to share why I think they are valuable for people like me and for society as a whole.
As someone who trades regularly, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets provide information you cant find anywhere else. I focus mostly on elections and major public events, and the prices on these markets often predict outcomes more accurately than polls or TV pundits. Last year, for instance, I was tracking a gubernatorial race in another state because it could impact agricultural policies that affect my investments. The prediction market gave me a clearer picture of the likely outcome than any news source, and that helped me make better decisions. This kind of forecasting isnt just useful for traders; its valuable for anyone who needs to understand what might happen next, whether theyre in business, government, or just trying to plan their lives.
I also believe that allowing regular folks like me to participate in these markets is a good thing. If only big institutions or insiders could trade, theyd keep all the insights to themselves. Opening these markets to everyday people makes the pricing more accurate because more perspectives are factored in. And this isnt gambling, no matter what some might say. Trading on prediction markets takes research and real-world judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. I spend hours reading up on candidates, policies, and trends before placing a trade. Its work, not a game of chance.
I know there are concerns about insider trading or manipulation, and I get why thats a worry. But the answer isnt to shut down these markets. Insider trading is already illegal, and the CFTC already has the power to go after people who try to manipulate prices. Use those tools instead of banning something that benefits so many. Regarding your questions in the ANPR, specifically Questions 29 and 30 under Inside Information, Id argue that informed trading actually improves price discovery. When people with knowledge trade, the market price reflects reality better, and that helps everyone, not just the traders. The focus should be on enforcing existing laws against abuse, not restricting the market itself.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont over-restrict or ban them. Create rules that address specific risks while allowing these markets to grow and provide their unique value. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
XY YZ
