Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Dante Newman, and I'm an everyday citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). Im not a lawyer or a financial expert, just someone who cares deeply about understanding the world through clear, data-driven insights. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and Im drawn to their mission of making prediction markets accessible and regulated. I believe these markets offer something unique, a way to cut through noise and get real probabilities on events that matter, and I want to see them supported with fair, proportionate rules.
Ive always been someone who likes thinking in probabilities and questioning assumptions. Prediction markets fit that mindset perfectly. Theyre not just a hobby for me; theyre a tool to understand complex systems like elections or public events. Ive seen firsthand how their forecasts often beat polls or pundits, giving me and others better information to make sense of the world. This isnt gambling, no matter what some might say. Trading on Kalshi takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. These event contracts serve a real purpose, whether its helping me think through risks or even hedge against outcomes that could affect my personal finances, like policy changes or economic shifts.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Kalshi being under CFTC oversight gives me confidence that there are guardrails in place. Banning or over-restricting these markets would push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which feels like a step backward for consumer protection. Id much rather see the U.S. lead on this kind of financial innovation with clear rules than cede ground to less safe alternatives. On that note, I think the CFTC already has strong tools to handle issues like manipulation or insider trading. Theres no need for broad bans when targeted enforcement can address specific bad actors.
I want to touch on a few questions from the ANPR that hit home for me. Regarding Questions 7-14 on public interest, I believe prediction markets balance innovation and protection by providing better price discovery and decision-making data for everyone, not just traders. On Questions 15-22 about listed activities, I urge you not to classify event contracts as gaming. Theyre economic tools, not games of chance. And for Questions 23-28 on procedures, I think categorical bans would be a mistake; individual or nuanced analysis of contracts would better serve the public.
Im asking you to support prediction markets with proportionate regulation. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Let platforms like Kalshi continue to operate under fair oversight, so people like me can keep accessing these powerful tools safely. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Dante Newman
