Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Carey Adkins, and I'm a software engineer based in North Carolina. I'm writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who actively trades on regulated platforms like Kalshi, I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States, and I urge the CFTC to adopt a balanced, proportionate approach to regulation rather than imposing overly restrictive rules or bans.
I got into prediction markets because they offer unique insights you can't find anywhere else. As a tech professional, I'm used to digging into data and analyzing trends, and trading on platforms like Kalshi lets me apply those skills to real-world events. It's not gambling; it's about research and judgment, just like investing in stocks or other assets. These markets also give regular people like me a chance to participate in financial systems that are often dominated by big institutions. That kind of democratized access matters, and it helps make the market's predictions more accurate.
What worries me is the risk of over-regulation or outright bans pushing this activity offshore to unregulated platforms. I've seen what happens in tech when innovation gets stifled; people just find workarounds, often in less safe environments. Regulated markets like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, are far safer for participants than shady offshore sites with no accountability. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets won't stop them; it'll just drive Americans to riskier venues. Instead, the U.S. should lead in financial innovation. We have the chance to set the global standard for these markets, not cede that advantage to other countries.
I also believe the CFTC already has the tools to handle concerns like manipulation or insider trading. Your existing authority over market integrity can be applied to event contracts without needing broad categorical bans. Targeted rules addressing specific risks make more sense and won't punish law-abiding participants like me. I think this ties directly to some of the questions in your ANPR, like Question 7 on balancing innovation with consumer protection and Question 33 on classification and regulatory costs. I urge you to focus on adapting current safeguards rather than creating heavy-handed restrictions that could hurt small traders or startups in this space.
Prediction markets are a powerful tool for forecasting and hedging, and they deserve a fair shot under sensible rules. Please support proportionate regulation that keeps these markets safe and accessible while ensuring the U.S. remains a leader in financial innovation. I'm happy to provide more input if needed, and I appreciate the chance to share my perspective.
Sincerely,
Carey Adkins
