Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Aryaman Tummalapalli, and I'm a regular citizen from New York writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the CFTC crafting proportionate regulations for prediction markets rather than overly restrictive rules or outright bans.
I believe prediction markets offer unique value that you just can't find elsewhere. They aggregate information in a way that often beats polls or pundits, especially for elections and major public events. I've seen firsthand how these platforms distill messy public opinion into clear, actionable numbers. That kind of forecasting isn't just helpful for traders like me; it benefits society by giving everyone, including policymakers and the media, better data to work with. Plus, the academic research backing this up, from economists who study information aggregation, shows these markets really do improve decision-making.
What strikes me most is how prediction markets aren't gambling, despite what some might say. They serve real economic purposes. For instance, I've used them to hedge risks tied to political outcomes that could impact my taxes or personal finances. I know small businesses that do the same, protecting against policy shifts or economic changes. This isn't about placing a bet for fun; it's about managing uncertainty with research and judgment, much like trading stocks or commodities. I also think there's a clear difference between markets on things like climate, politics, or geopolitics, which have positive societal impacts by clarifying public sentiment, and something like sports betting, which I don't see adding much economic or social value. If anything, revenue from the sports side could help support these more beneficial markets.
I understand concerns about insider trading or manipulation, and I appreciate the CFTC's focus on these risks in questions 29 to 32 of the ANPR. But I don't think the answer is to shut down or over-restrict prediction markets. The laws against insider trading already apply, and the CFTC has tools to tackle manipulation in other markets. Those should be adapted here instead of punishing everyone by limiting access. On the public interest side, as discussed in questions 7 to 14, I think the balance tips toward innovation and access. These markets democratize information, and excluding regular folks like me would just concentrate the benefits with big players.
I'm asking the CFTC to regulate prediction markets in a way that addresses specific risks without stifling their potential. Support proportionate rules that keep these platforms safe and accessible for everyday people. They're too valuable to lose.
Sincerely,
Aryaman Tummalapalli
