Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Abhinav Vasudevan, and I'm a student from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I believe they serve a valuable purpose for individuals, businesses, and society as a whole. I strongly support proportionate regulation of these markets rather than overly restrictive rules or outright bans.
As a student, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets provide information thats often more accurate than polls or pundits. Whether its forecasting election outcomes or other public events, these platforms cut through noise and bias to deliver real insights. That kind of data isnt just useful for traders; it helps everyone, from journalists to policymakers, make better decisions. I also believe the U.S. should be a leader in financial innovation. If we over-regulate or ban prediction markets, we risk pushing this cutting-edge activity offshore to less safe, unregulated platforms. Thats a loss for American competitiveness and for consumer protection.
I want to address a common concern Ive heard, that these markets are just gambling. I disagree. Trading on prediction markets involves research and judgment about real-world events, much like investing in stocks. Plus, they serve real economic purposes. For instance, individuals and businesses can hedge risks tied to political or economic uncertainty, like policy changes that might affect taxes or personal finances. Banning or over-restricting these markets doesnt solve problems; it punishes regular people who want to participate in a legal, regulated space.
I also think informed trading is a net positive. Regarding the CFTCs questions on inside information, specifically Question 29, I believe traders with better knowledge improve price discovery. That benefits all market participants by making prices more accurate. Of course, illegal insider trading should be prosecuted, but the CFTC already has tools to handle that. Shutting down entire markets to stop a few bad actors isnt the answer.
On the topic of public interest, as raised in Questions 7 through 14, I urge you to balance innovation with consumer protection. Prediction markets democratize access to valuable information and let ordinary citizens like me have a stake in understanding public events. Academic research, which I follow closely as a student, also supports this. Studies show these markets aggregate information efficiently, and that transparency helps everyone.
Im asking the CFTC to craft rules that support well-regulated prediction markets. Dont let fear of misuse lead to broad restrictions that hurt legitimate participants or push activity out of the U.S. Focus on targeted solutions to specific risks, using the authority you already have. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Abhinav Vasudevan
