Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Eric Johnston, and I'm just a regular guy from Colorado who wants to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im not a financial expert or a lawyer, just someone whos been trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now. I believe these markets are valuable, and Im writing to ask for fair, balanced regulation that lets people like me participate without pushing activity to riskier, unregulated platforms.
I started trading on prediction markets because they give me insights I cant find anywhere else. Whether its an election outcome or an economic indicator, the prices often tell a clearer story than polls or news pundits. This isnt gambling to me. It takes real effort, reading up on issues, and making informed guesses about the world, just like any other kind of investing. Plus, Ive used these markets to hedge personal risks, like betting on interest rate changes that affect my mortgage decisions. I think its only fair that everyday folks like me get to participate in these markets, not just big institutions.
What worries me is the idea of over-restricting or banning these markets. Ive traded on both regulated platforms like Kalshi, which is under CFTC oversight, and unregulated offshore ones like Polymarket. The difference is night and day. On a regulated market, I feel safer knowing there are rules, transparency, and someone watching for manipulation. Offshore platforms? Its a free-for-all. If the CFTC clamps down too hard, people like me will get pushed to those less safe venues. Thats not protecting consumers, its putting us at risk.
I noticed some of the questions in the ANPR, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, and Question 14 on comparing these markets to other tools. My take is simple: regulated prediction markets are a net positive for innovation and public information, and theyre safer than the alternatives. As for concerns like insider trading or manipulation, mentioned in Questions 29 to 32, I get it. Those are real issues. But the CFTC already has laws and tools to tackle bad actors. Punishing everyone by shutting down markets isnt the answer, its like closing a highway because a few people speed.
Im asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep platforms like Kalshi operating under clear, fair rules, and dont over-restrict access for regular people like me. Lets keep this activity safe and in the U.S., not driven offshore. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Eric Johnston
