Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Leonardo Adduci, and I'm a trader and investor based in Connecticut. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets, and I hope my perspective as someone who has used these platforms a few times can add to your considerations.
I've always been fascinated by how markets can distill complex information into a single price. Over the years, I've turned to prediction markets for insight into elections and other public events, and I've found their forecasts to be consistently sharper than what I hear from polls or pundits on TV. I remember checking a prediction market during the last presidential election cycle, and the probabilities it showed were much closer to the actual outcome than any survey I saw. That kind of accuracy isn't just interesting to me as a trader; it's valuable to anyone trying to make sense of an uncertain world. I believe these markets provide a public good by aggregating information in a way nothing else does.
As someone who values the freedom to engage in legal, regulated financial activities, I also see prediction markets as an important space for regular people like me to participate. These aren't just playgrounds for big institutions. When everyday traders can weigh in, the market gets more diverse input, and the forecasts get better. I don't see this as gambling at all. It takes research and judgment, much like any other investment I make. Shutting down or overly restricting these markets would cut off a unique source of information and limit my ability to engage with events that matter to me.
I want to touch on a couple of specific questions from your ANPR. Regarding Question 7 on public interest, I think prediction markets clearly serve the public by offering better forecasting tools that inform decision-making, whether it's for individuals, businesses, or even policymakers. On Question 15, about defining legitimate markets versus gaming, I urge you to recognize that event contracts are grounded in real-world analysis, not chance. They shouldn't be lumped in with gambling.
I understand there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation. But those issues are already illegal under existing laws, and the CFTC has the authority to enforce them. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets to stop a few bad actors would punish the rest of us who use them responsibly. Let's focus on targeted rules, not broad prohibitions.
I respectfully ask that the CFTC support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep them accessible, legal, and safe for traders like me while addressing specific risks with the tools you already have. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Leonardo Adduci
