Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Chad Wimpee, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Ohio writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe that well-regulated prediction markets are valuable for people like me and for society as a whole. I appreciate the chance to weigh in before you draft formal rules.
I rely on prediction markets for a couple of key reasons. First, they give me access to information I can't find anywhere else. The prices on these platforms often predict election outcomes or other public events more accurately than polls or news pundits. That helps me make better decisions, whether it's planning my budget around potential policy changes or just understanding what's likely to happen in the world. Second, I use these markets to hedge real financial risks. For example, I've placed trades on election outcomes that could affect my taxes or local business regulations. It's not gambling; it's a practical way to protect myself, much like buying insurance or investing in stocks.
I'm also a firm believer that regulated markets like Kalshi are far safer than the unregulated offshore platforms out there. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, people like me will get pushed to less secure venues with no oversight. That's not a solution; it's a bigger problem. The US should be leading in financial innovation, not handing that advantage to other countries. Plus, the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading. Use those existing powers instead of creating broad prohibitions that punish everyone for the actions of a few bad actors.
I also want to address the idea that event contracts are just "gaming." That's not true. These contracts serve real economic purposes, like hedging and price discovery. Trading on them takes research and judgment, just like any other investment. Calling it gambling would be like calling the stock market gambling. And on the topic of informed trading, I think it actually improves price discovery. When people with knowledge trade, the market prices get more accurate, and that benefits everyone, not just the traders.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I want to touch on a few. For Question 7 under Public Interest, I believe prediction markets balance innovation and consumer protection when they're regulated properly, as they are on platforms like Kalshi. For Question 15 under Listed Activities, I urge you not to classify event contracts as gaming; they have legitimate uses. And for Question 29 under Inside Information, I think informed trading helps the market reflect true probabilities, as long as existing laws against insider trading are enforced.
In closing, I ask that the CFTC support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or overly restrict them. Keep them accessible, safe, and innovative right here in the US. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Chad Wimpee
