Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Tom Loughlin, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Massachusetts writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they have real value. I want to urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets rather than banning or over-restricting them.
I've always been interested in following politics and economic trends, and prediction markets have given me a unique way to see what people really think about upcoming events. I've noticed that the forecasts on these platforms often seem sharper than what I hear from polls or pundits on TV. For example, during the last election cycle, I checked a prediction market to get a sense of the odds on certain outcomes, and it felt more reliable than the endless back-and-forth on cable news. That kind of information isn't just helpful to me; I think it benefits everyone who wants a clearer picture of what's likely to happen.
What worries me, though, is the idea of these markets getting pushed underground. I've read about offshore platforms that operate with no oversight, and that seems like a much bigger risk to regular people like me than a regulated market. If the CFTC clamps down too hard or bans certain types of event contracts, I think a lot of activity will just move to those unregulated sites where there's no consumer protection at all. A platform like Kalshi, which operates under CFTC rules, feels a lot safer to me. I can trust that there's some accountability there, unlike with some shady offshore site.
I also want to address some of the concerns raised in your questions, specifically around consumer protection and public interest, like in Questions 7 and 8. I get that there are risks, like potential manipulation or people getting in over their heads. But banning or over-restricting these markets doesn't solve that; it just pushes the problem somewhere the CFTC can't touch. Instead, I think the focus should be on strong rules that protect users while still allowing innovation. You already have tools to fight fraud and manipulation in other markets, so why not apply those here?
I'm not an expert, but I believe prediction markets can be a force for good if they're handled right. Please don't let fear of the bad actors lead to rules that punish regular folks who use these platforms responsibly. I strongly support proportionate regulation that keeps markets like these safe and accessible in the U.S., rather than driving them offshore.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Tom Loughlin
