Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jayton Gill, and I'm a trader and investor based in North Carolina. I've been active in financial markets for years, and Ive found prediction markets, particularly through platforms like Kalshi, to be a valuable tool for managing risks tied to political, economic, and financial events. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in the United States.
As someone who trades regularly, Ive used Kalshi to hedge against uncertainties that directly impact my financial planning. For instance, Ive placed trades to offset potential losses tied to election outcomes that could affect tax policies or regulatory changes impacting my investments. This isn't gambling, it's a practical way to manage real risks, much like how I use other derivatives to protect my portfolio. Prediction markets offer a unique kind of price discovery that I can't get from polls or news pundits. The aggregated information in these markets often proves more accurate, and that benefits not just traders like me but anyone who relies on solid data for decision-making, from businesses to policymakers.
I also believe that regulated platforms like Kalshi are far safer for consumers than the alternative. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, activity won't just disappear, it'll move to unregulated offshore platforms with no oversight. Thats a worse outcome for everyone. Keeping prediction markets under CFTC supervision ensures transparency, protects participants, and maintains U.S. leadership in financial innovation. We shouldnt cede this space to other countries; we should set the standard.
Regarding some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address a few points. On Questions 7-14 about public interest, I think the CFTC should recognize the value of innovation and price discovery while ensuring consumer protection through targeted rules, not broad prohibitions. On Questions 29-32 about inside information, I believe informed trading actually improves market accuracy and benefits all participants by reflecting the best available data in prices. Existing laws already prohibit insider trading by federal officials, and the CFTC has tools to combat manipulation. Lets enforce those, not punish legitimate users.
Im also concerned about the idea of classifying event contracts as gambling, as discussed in Questions 15-22. These contracts serve real economic purposes like hedging and information aggregation. Treating them as gaming dismisses their utility and could drive them out of regulated spaces.
I urge the CFTC to adopt a balanced approach. Regulate prediction markets proportionately to address specific risks without stifling their benefits. Dont let over-restriction push this valuable tool offshore. Thank you for considering my perspective as you shape these important rules.
Sincerely,
Jayton Gill
