Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Henry Neal, and I'm a trader and investor based in Montana. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to your Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). Ive also recently started running a successful 15-minute Bitcoin bot, which Id love to scale further, but slippage on smaller markets is a real hurdle, especially when competing against sophisticated algorithms with better latency. Prediction markets offer a different kind of opportunity for me, and I believe they can benefit many others too if regulated properly.
I rely on prediction markets to hedge personal and business financial risks. For instance, trading on contracts tied to economic indicators or policy outcomes helps me manage uncertainties that could impact my investments or trading strategies. These markets provide unique information and insights that I cant get from polls or news. Theyre not just a game; they take research and real-world judgment, much like trading stocks or commodities. Ive seen firsthand how accurate these markets can be compared to so-called experts. That benefits everyone, not just traders like me.
One big concern I have is that banning or over-restricting prediction markets will push activity offshore to unregulated platforms. Ive traded on both regulated and offshore markets, and I can tell you the difference in safety and transparency is night and day. If the CFTC cracks down too hard, people like me wont stop trading; well just go to less secure venues. Thats worse for consumer protection, not better. Regulated markets like Kalshi are the way to go, and Id urge you to expand on that model. Also, offering more education around prediction markets would help a lot. Too many people see this as gambling when it can actually be a serious tool to make money if approached right. Id even be willing to help teach others. Sponsor me if youre interested!
Addressing some of your specific questions, like those in Topic Area B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I believe prediction markets balance innovation and protection when regulated smartly. And on Topic Area A regarding core principles (Questions 1-6), Id stress that issues like manipulation or insider trading are already illegal. The CFTC has tools to handle bad actors without shutting down entire markets. Slippage and latency are bigger issues for me than insider trading worries. I just want to trade short-term contracts without it turning into a speed race against bots.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Keep them accessible, safe, and transparent for everyday traders like me. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Henry Neal
