Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is John Fleming, and I'm just a regular citizen from Florida writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I believe these platforms are valuable. I want to urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets with fair, proportionate rules instead of over-restricting or banning them.
I got into prediction markets because they give me a way to engage with events that affect my life, like elections or economic decisions, in a direct, financial way. It's not just about making a bet; it's about researching and understanding what's happening in the world. I feel like my participation, along with thousands of others, helps create better information for everyone. But what really matters to me is having the freedom to take part in legal, regulated markets here in the US. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, make me feel much safer than the unregulated offshore alternatives out there. If the CFTC cracks down too hard or bans these markets, I worry that people like me will be pushed to less safe, foreign platforms with no protections.
I'm also concerned about the US staying competitive. We should be leading the way in financial innovation, not handing that advantage to other countries. Prediction markets are a new kind of tool, and if we over-regulate them, we'll just drive the talent and technology overseas. On that note, I think the CFTC already has solid tools to handle issues like manipulation and insider trading. I've read about your authority to go after bad actors in other markets, and I believe those same powers can work here. There's no need for broad bans when targeted rules can address specific problems.
Looking at some of the questions in the ANPR, I want to touch on a couple that hit home for me. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulated markets are the answer. They keep us safe while letting innovation grow. On Question 23, about when public interest determinations should happen, I hope the CFTC avoids blanket restrictions early on and instead looks at markets case by case to avoid shutting down legitimate activity.
I understand there are risks with prediction markets, like potential manipulation. But banning or over-restricting them punishes regular folks like me who use these platforms responsibly. Please focus on proportionate regulation that targets the real issues without pushing activity offshore. Keep the US at the forefront of financial innovation and let people like me continue to participate in safe, regulated markets.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
John Fleming
