Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Anthony Vazquez, and I'm a trader and investor based in California. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I'm writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide real value to people like me, to businesses, and to society as a whole, and I urge the CFTC to regulate them proportionately rather than impose broad bans or overly restrictive rules.
As a trader, I've seen firsthand how prediction markets offer information you can't get anywhere else. The prices on these platforms often predict election outcomes or major public events more accurately than polls or pundits. That kind of insight helps me make better financial decisions, and I think it could help policymakers and the public too. Beyond that, I use these markets to hedge personal financial risks. For example, I've traded contracts tied to economic indicators like CPI reports to offset uncertainties with my investments. This isn't gambling, it's a practical tool, much like trading stocks or commodities. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" ignores their legitimate economic purpose, like price discovery and risk management.
I'm also concerned about where trading goes if the U.S. over-regulates. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are far safer for consumers than unregulated offshore alternatives. If we push this activity out of the U.S. with heavy-handed rules, traders like me lose protections, and the country risks losing its edge in financial innovation. We should be leading on this, not ceding ground to other nations.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that. But the CFTC already has powerful tools to tackle those issues in other derivatives markets. Those same tools can work for prediction markets without resorting to broad categorical bans that punish everyone for the actions of a few. I also think the academic research on this topic, which shows how these markets improve forecasting and transparency, should guide the CFTC's approach.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I want to address a few from Topic B on Public Interest (Questions 7-14). I believe prediction markets clearly serve the public interest through better price discovery and risk management, as I've experienced personally. And on Topic C (Questions 15-22), I urge the CFTC not to treat these contracts as gaming but as legitimate financial instruments. Targeted regulation, not outright prohibitions, is the way to handle specific risks.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Keep them accessible, safe, and innovative under your oversight. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Anthony Vazquez
